LeBron’s Chances of Winning More Championships are Slim to None

The NBA treated us this year to “The Decision – Part Deux” and we got loads of entertainment.  LeBron and the general media took his every step and gesture as a defender takes his jab step waiting to see if he will take a locomotive drive or pass to an outside bound player for a dagger three pointer.  Instead he launched a feathery jumper, defying Thomas Wolfe, saying “LeBron Can Go Home Again”.   So after a week of waiting for LeBron, the clogged, NBA free agent rolls were treated to LeBron’s  unclogging act and free agents signed fast and furious.  Melo stayed home.  Pau Gasol moved on to Chicago.   Luol Deng moved to Miami.  Lance Stephenson abandoned the Pacers.  And while dallying with the Rockets, Chris Bosh went back to Miami for the big money.  (Of all the players that mattered, why didn’t Bosh go to the Spurs for less money where he could win many future championships?).

A month later, Lebron James reappeared 20 pounds lighter and with the expected Kevin Love acquisition bound for another championship level threesome.

But no one asked the pivotal question.  With 40,000 (40K) minutes played in the NBA as a wing player and point forward can he win another championship?  Or will LeBron overstay his welcome and face the unmitigating taunting from some future star dropping a ton of points on him in the future like the young Larry Bird when he dropped 42 points to 6 vs. Dr J or Kobe when he dropped 42 on Michael Jordan in the first half of a game?

We took a deep dive into LeBron’s playing data vs historical norms for NBA small forwards.  Outside of Scottie Pippen, no player has played point forward remotely close to his minutes in the NBA in their career.   And Pippen played point forward for a much shorter period than LeBron as he was not the main ball handler in Houston or Portland, his teams after the Chicago Bulls.

Among today’s active players (table below), LeBron James is number 12 in minutes played.  Not one of the players in front of him plays more than 30 minutes a game today and several of them do not start for their respective teams.   LeBron may be one of the top 5 active players a year from now!

Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Ray Allen, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki  may hang it up in a season.  And LeBron will likely surpass  Andre Miller, Vince Carter and Jason Terry in minutes played as their incremental minutes dwindle.  Teams don’t build around top 5 active minutes players.  LeBron has played 8,000 more minutes than Dwayne Wade!!!  In 2 more seasons that gap is likely to grow past 10,000 minutes.

 

Active NBA Leaders Career Minutes Played
Rank	Player	Starter Minutes – Likely Retire – Position	Reg Season Minutes	Playoff Minutes	Total Minutes	age	total seasons	career average minutes
1	Kobe Bryant	N – U – SG	45,567	8,641	54,208	35	18	3,012
2	Kevin Garnett	N – Y – PF	48,910	5,283	54,193	38	19	2,852
3	Ray Allen	N – Y – SG	46,344	6,064	52,408	39	19	2,758
4	Tim Duncan	Y – Y – PF	43,605	8,902	52,507	38	17	3,089
5	Paul Pierce	Y – U – SF	42,458	5,776	48,234	36	16	3,015
6	Dirk Nowitzki	Y – U – PF	42,603	5,544	48,147	36	16	3,009
7	Shawn Marion	Y – U – SF	38,996	3,812	42,808	36	15	2,854
8	Steve Nash	N – Y – PG	38,069	4,289	42,358	40	18	2,353
9	Vince Carter	N – U – SG	39,240	2,551	41,791	37	16	2,612
10	Andre Miller	Y – U – SF	38,554	1,893	40,447	38	15	2,696
11	Jason Terry	N – U – PG	36,956	3,265	40,221	36	15	2,681
12	LeBron James	Y – U – SF	33,276	6,717	39,993	29	11	3,636
13	Joe Johnson	35,692	3,143	38,835	33	13	2,987
14	Elton Brand	Y – U – PF	34,199	1,139	36,714	35	15	2,448
15	Rashard Lewis	Y – U – PF	33,541	2,829	36,370	34	16	2,273
16	Pau Gasol	Y – U – PF	32,230	4,053	36,283	34	13	2,791

All the players in front of LeBron had significant minutes decline the immediate season after crossing 40K minutes of 12% on average from their career averages and many of them in this last season have seen absolute decline from career averages ranging from 10-40% not including Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant who lost much of their seasons to injury.

LeBron has averaged a whopping 3,600 minutes a game for 11 seasons something that iron men peers like Joe Johnson or Kobe Bryant have not.  LeBron can break down slowly declining in minutes, or he could have a precipitous injury leading to a large decline in average minutes for the remainder of his career.  Allen Iverson and Luol Deng are players that were ironmen for periods in their career and then had breakdowns where their playing time declined by 30% on average and they never came back in terms of game minutes from their injuries.  Larry Johnson once played 3,700 minutes in a season including playoffs and by the time he was 27 never played more than 2,700 minutes in a season again.  Minimally, we would expect LeBron’s minutes to drop by 12%.   This is shown on the table below.

	Active NBA Leaders Career Change in Minutes post 40,000 minutes
Rank	Player	Total Minutes	total seasons	career average minutes	avg total seasonal MP after 40K	seasons 40+ MP	change MP first season after 40k MP	%change	change MP last season after 40K MP	%change
1	Kobe Bryant	54,208	18	3,012	2558	5	120	4%	2658	88%
2	Kevin Garnett	54,193	19	2,852	2223	6	556	19%	1219	43%
3	Ray Allen	52,408	19	2,758	2626	4	-71	-3%	883	32%
4	Tim Duncan	52,507	17	3,089	2547	4	282	9%	280	9%
5	Paul Pierce	48,234	16	3,015	2716	3	699	23%	676	22%
6	Dirk Nowitzki	48,147	16	3,009	2537	3	430	14%	-119	-4%
8	Steve Nash	42,358	18	2,353	1001	2	334	14%	1648	70%
12	LeBron James	39,993	11	3,636
	Average							12%		36%

Last year, Miami won 54 games and got to the NBA finals with LeBron playing a whopping 3,650 minutes.   If LeBron were to cut his minutes by the average 12% to 3,250 minutes (8-9 games missed) how many games would the new Cleveland Cavaliers be able to win in 2014-2015 after going 34-49 in 2013-2014. Even assuming the Cleveland team with all three players and a rookie coach are as good as Miami was on average last year with Eric Spoelstra coaching (not necessarily true), because of the high career unavailabilty of Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving and diminished playing time for LeBron, this team would be expected to finish worse than Miami’s record from last year. Probably at least 5 games worse.

The numbers from this era of basketball tell a part of the story about LeBron’s quest for new success in Cleveland.   But what about compared to other all time great small forwards who have played pro basketball.   How have they fared after their 40K minute played?  Reflecting on the success of the top 11 all time NBA small forwards in terms of minutes played, not one has won a championship as the team leading scorer after playing their 40K minute.  This is shown on the table below.

This considers such all time greats as Paul Pierce, John Havlicek and Scottie Pippen.   Even the great Michael Jordan won his last championship during the season he surpassed 40K minutes played.  Havlicek won as a supporting cast member to all star teammates Dave Cowens, Paul Silas and Charlie Scott.  Outside of Havlicek, it seems winning championships after 40K minutes is the provenance of big men like Kareem Abdul Jabbar and Tim Duncan, who also won championships as the supporting cast for other stars like Magic Johnson or Tony Parker.

All Time NBA Small Forwards Championships Post 40K Mins
Rank	Player	Reg Season Minutes	Playoff Minutes	Total Minutes	total seasons	career average minutes / season	Championships after 40K minutes leading scorer category
1	John Havlicek*	46,471	5,838	52,309	16	3,269	0
2	Scottie Pippen*	41,069	8,105	49,174	17	2,893	0
3	Paul Pierce	42,458	5,749	48,207	16	3,013	0
4	Shawn Marion	38,996	3,812	42,808	15	2,854	0
5	Michael Finley	37,996	4,654	42,650	15	2,843	0
6	Larry Bird*	34,443	6,886	41,329	13	3,179	0
7	Alex English*	38,063	2,565	40,628	15	2,709	0
8	Dominique Wilkins*	38,113	2,275	40,388	17	2,376	0
9	LeBron James	33,276	6,717	39,993	11	3,636	na
10	Elgin Baylor*	33,863	5,510	39,373	14	2,812	0
11	Adrian Dantley*	34,151	2,515	38,917	15	2,594	0

This season will beg many questions.  How many coaches will look to give a beating to the much lauded new NBA coach David Blatt and set the NBA pecking order.  Speaking of Blatt, no NBA Rookie coach has won an NBA championship since Pat Riley who took over an NBA championship team from 2 years prior.  And Riley had a background like no other as the son of a pro athlete whose high school beat Kareem Abdul Jabbar’s Power Memorial in the New York State championships.  He later played for the winningest coach in college basketball history and for an NBA championship team.  He was also an assistant coach when the Lakers won a championship.  All credentials Blatt does not possess.

What about LeBron’s weight loss?  That may help his career durability, but many NBA big men will have less to fear from a 220 pound LeBron barreling down the lane than a 250 pound LeBron.  It seems LeBron is trying to become Kobe.  But LeBron has logged far more miles on his body as a point forward than Kobe who has played primarily on passing/endurance friendly teams.  It may be too little too late.

Can the Cavaliers get to the finals much less win a championship this year, playing with a new coach and an often injured Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love who average between them 60 games a season in their career and neither have been to the playoffs much less played on a winning team.

Can the 36 year old Shawn Marion, the player with the 4^th most active minutes in the NBA provide meaningful support for LeBron?  How many people will look to get revenge on LeBron who will not have NBA all time greats Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade alongside him going into this season?   How many rebounds will Kevin Love get playing on a team that makes more shots in a conference that plays on average with 10% fewer possessions.  Is one Kevin Love who plays 70% of the games better than Chris Bosh, the Birdman and Udonis Haslem (10 boards per 36 minute players) combined?  In a race against time, this team may mature in 2-3 seasons, but by then LeBron may have played his 46^th or 49^th thousandth minute.  Not the numbers that win championships.

A Quick Primer on the Phil Jackson System

A lot of sports media commentators are doubting thomases on Phil Jackson and his approach towards building basketball teams. Most sports commentators will know everything about the nuances of football, the statistics of baseball or hockey folklore, but basketball strategy is not a strength for any but few of the top commentators and analysts.

Phil Jackson Championship Math

Journeymen — Robert Horry + Derek Fisher + Horace Grant = 17

All Time Greats — Charles Barkley + Steve Nash + Karl Malone = 0

Phil Jackson is known for the Triangle offense, but what he is not popularly known for is coaching length and eliminating the need for a high powered point guard. As of today, none of Jackson’s championship teams have had a top 100 point guard in total assists. Jackson’s top point guard from all his championship teams is Derek Fisher, his New York Knicks coach. Fisher ranks #116 all time in assists behind Rory Sparrow and Eric Snow. Who, they? Exactly!

But 3 of Jackson’s players are in the top 50 all time assist leaders. Scottie Pippen, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant are all in the top 42 assist leaders of all time. Jackson’s assists come from his scorers. Further proof. Shaq is one of the top 10 assists centers of all time, right behind Hakeem Olajuwon. His best 3 seasons were with the Lakers. In one season he had 300 assists, almost 100 more than his prior high at that point in his career.

Phil Jackson talks about how he uses a “System” strategy to win championships. Much like the San Antonio Spurs. Not surprising, system players from the Bulls and Lakers, Steve Kerr and Robert Horry won championships later with the Spurs. Commentators forget that his Bulls and Lakers franchises had constant change in their lineups. They picked up Dennis Rodman from San Antonio and Luc Longley from Milwaukee. Bill Wennington came out of the Italian league. Horace Grant, Brian Shaw and Robert Horry with the Lakers all were considered to be past their prime, yet won championships in Laker Land.

More than anything, Phil Jackson coaches length and spacing. Without a point guard, either guard can guard the shooting guard from the other team. With a tall second guard, the team can crash the boards for greater offensive rebounds. With better spacing more offensive rebounds are available. And with more offensive rebounds there are fewer opportunities for fast break points by the opponent. How much does Phil Jackson space his offense? 3 of the top 9 three point shooting big men over 6-10 won championships with Jackson.

Top 9 All time 6-10 3 point Shooters

Player ………………. 3ptrs
Rashard Lewis …….1787
Rasheed Wallace …1086
Tim Thomas …………962
Kevin Durant ……….893
Sam Perkins ………..849
Robert Horry……….795
Toni Kukoc………….731
Danny Ferry………..677
Lamar Odom………..664

For more insight, check the details below.

(1) Quick Quiz – Who has more NBA championships?

(a) Larry Bird
(b) Julius Erving
(c) Charles Barkley
(d) Dominique Wilkins
(e) Robert Horry

Before you look it up, the answer is (e) Robert Horry. Horry, who scored 7,715 points in his career is the prototypical Phil Jackson role player who won 7 NBA championships with the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. Horry is the typical role player that Phil Jackson has used on his teams to fill a need. 6-10 and playing small forward, Horry was an outstanding 3 point shooter and rebounder with championship experience and a reputation for clutch shooting.

(2) Quick Quiz – What NBA coach has coached 7 of the top 77 NBA rebounders in history to NBA championships?

(a) Rudy Tomjanovich
(b) Larry Brown
(c) Phil Jackson
(d) KC Jones
(e) Pat Riley

The answer is (c) Phil Jackson. Though Phil Jackson is known for coaching superstars Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant to 5 or more titles in their careers, he also coached 7 of the top 77 rebounders of all time to championships. In many cases, the only championships those players won. In order, Jackson coached:

Player …………Rebounds
Shaquille Oneal….13,099
Dennis Rodman ….11,954
AC Green……………..9.473
Horace Grant……….9,443
Pau Gasol……………..8,336
Lamar Odom………..8,059
Scottie Pippen……..7,494

(c) Which point guards have won more championships

(a) Jason Kidd
(b) John Stockton
(c) Mark Jackson
(d) Derek Fisher
(e) Steve Nash

Derek Fisher has more championships (5) than the top 4 NBA assists leaders of all time, combined! Kidd, Stockton, Nash and Jackson have all been competent 3 point shooters with a combined ratio of 9.2 assists per every 3 pointer made, but Phil Jackson point guards are lights out 3 point shooters with a 3 pointer made per every 4.4 assists. They are just as deadly with the trey as with the pass. Eliminate John Paxson who was a deadly mid range shooter and the 3 pointer to assists ratio is an astounding 3 pointer to every 3.8 assists.

Only one point guard is in Phil Jackson’s top 6 career assist leaders, Derek Fisher.

Phil Jackson’s ….Assists Leaders

Scottie Pippen……..6135
Kobe Bryant………..5925
Brian Shaw…………3918
Ron Harper…………3916
Derek Fisher……….3804
Lamar Odom…………3554

Finally, though point guards are looked upon as the brand for the NBA, point guards have the fewest NBA championships as coaches over the last 39 years. Jackson coaches a non point guard centric system.

NBA Coach Championships by Position Last 39 years

Position………………Coach…………………………………….Championships…% of all

Center………………..Jackson……………………………………………………..11……….28%
Forward……………..Tomjanovich, Heinsohn, Cunningham……….. 5……….. 13%
Shooting Guard…..Popovich, Riley, Jones, Carlisle………………..12…………31%
Point Guard………..Attles, Brown, Rivers, Wilkens……………………5…………10%
Not a Pro……………Daly, Spoelstra, Fitch, Ramsey, Westhead……7…………18%

Lebron vs. Rafa

A lot has been made about Lebron James cramping during the NBA basketball finals. His critics call him a “Mercenary” or “Opportunist” for leaving the Cavaliers, or “LeCramp” or someone who should be using Mydol. Others have criticized his diet or hydrating habits. Lebron Apologists who listen to Dan Lebetard (Lebron-A-Tards) claim it was a very tough game and the temperature was 90 degrees.

So we asked if there is any analogous tennis situation to this heat. Well, fans of the Australian Open may scoff at the crybaby Lebron-A-Tards. The average temperature at the Australian Open is 95 degrees and on the court can get to 110 degrees. In settled science, tennis players run far more in a match than basketball players. In an average 5 set tennis match, each player runs 5 miles. In an average basketball game, players run less than 2 miles. Luol Deng who was one of the top leaders in minutes played in the 2012 season led the NBA in mileage that year with 2.75 miles run a game.

Lebron actually played about 2 minutes less a game, 37.7, this season than his career average. He averaged 27.1 points a game and 6.3 assists. In theory you can say he was involved in roughly 35% of the Heat’s points. So on offense he is playing hard about 35% of the time.

But the Heat typically only have the ball about half the game time. So Lebron runs hard about 35% of the 19 minutes he is playing offense, or about 7 minutes a game. What about defense. Lebron seldom covers the other teams best offensive player. During the regular season, Shane Battier started 54 of the Heats games and most of the time he covers the other team’s best scoring forward. So it is hard to imagine Lebron is involved in defending any offensive player as much as he is involved on offense. Lebron defends half as much as he offends. Lebron plays hard about 10 minutes a game. But Lebron gets lots of breaks during his games. The average NBA game is 3 hours long in duration, about 180 minutes, but he is playing hard only about 6% of that entire time. How much does Lebron actually run a game? Maybe 2 miles.

But what about comparisons to tennis. There is a great analogy which is the 2012 Australian Open final played by Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. It is the longest men’s Grand Slam tennis tournament final in history with Djokovic winning 7-5 in the fifth set. It was a night time match like the Heat-Spurs basketball game, but it lasted 5 hours and 53 minutes. Each player ran about 7 miles.

How do you compare the two sports? Well, when Lebron wants to take a break during a point he passes the ball to Dwayne Wade or Chris Bosh. When Nadal wants to get rid of the ball, it goes to Djokovic and comes back immediately.

What about sprinting, basketball players sprint up the court a lot. But not the Heat. In 2013, the Heat averaged 12.6 fastbreak points a game (or 6 fast breaks) finishing in 17th out of 30 teams in the league. Assuming Lebron finishes about 25% of those fast break points, he sprints the length of the court about 2 times a game. In a Nadal – Djokovic match they can sprint the length of the court 2 times on an average point.

What are even better comparisons? Lebron plays in a league where the athletes take home half the league’s revenue. Nadal and Djokovic play in a pro tour where the athletes take home about 10% of the sports revenue. This year Lebron’s team won 54 games about 65% and he made $20 million in salary. And another $60 million in endorsements. In 2013, Nadal won 72 matches (about 91% of all matches) and made $14 million. But Nadal ran most of the points of every match and about 2 times to 2.5 times more than Lebron per match. When Nadal doesn’t run, he loses the point. When Lebron doesn’t run, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh or Ray Allen pick up the slack as part of their $80 million roster salary. There is no way to measure what percent of the points Lebron ran or how many wins he was directly responsible.

When Nadal came down with back pains in this year’s Australian Open, he toughed it out and pulled out a set playing at less than optimal for more than 2.5 hours. Lebron took a seat with cramps after 32 minutes.

Regardless, we wish Lebron the best of luck with his ailments and recommend a good nutritionist like Djokovic. For Nadal vs Djokovic in the French Open this weekend, “Vamo Rafa”.

Wimbledon 2012 Becomes First Indoor Slam

Wimbledon 2012 is over and we aim to cover the major themes as discussed by the media using the data and science available to understand what happened. Many might have wondered what was going on with the tournament as it seemed there were two very different tournaments being played. One a grass court spectacle and the other an indoor tennis tournament favoring a different style player.

As we have pointed out in the past, the ATP tour rolled out the 32 player seeded draw to ensure there were fewer upsets so the top seeds could reach the finals of tournaments. Though Rafael Nadal was upset, 4 of the top 5 seeds reached the semifinals. The Wimbledon gods smiled on Federer where he faced no top 28 seeds until the semifinals. Then he played his next and final two matches indoors vs. Djokovic and a Palooka named Andy Murray in the finals. Though the Murray match was a close affair at first, the match was converted into an indoor venue midway ultimately changing the elements of the Championship. Federer is the first winner in Wimbledon history to face 3 players in a row (who he was 26-2 versus) over 30 years old at the tourney.

What to make of Nadal’s loss after 5 ESPN analysts picked him to win the tourney and we saw him as a heavy favorite? In the last 2 years, the majority of Nadal’s losses to players not named Federer and Djokovic have been to players 6’3″ or taller who tend to hit flat down the line passing shots off Nadal’s topspin forehand. These players, like Mardy Fish, Juan Martin Del Potro and Robin Soderling have massive firepower off both sides.

The 6’5″ Lukas Rosol played in the same vein in an out of his tree, partially indoor match firing 22 aces and facing only 4 break points in 25 service games. When he wasn’t firing aces, he was blasting huge groundstrokes hitting 65 winners including 14 winners off Nadal’s serve. Nadal may be the only person in history to play 51 games in a match with only 16 unforced errors (in 276 points) and lose.

Tied at 2 sets a piece with sunlight dimming, Nadal expected to complete his match the next day. However, the Wimbledon tournament officials determined to finish matches on schedule for television, decided to play the last set under lights with the rooftop closed.

When the rooftop is shut at Centre Court the tennis environment changes noticeably. Players have complained of getting a clammy feeling as all wind is eliminated and a centrally controlled environment of 74 F / 33 C degrees is implemented. Humidity condenses and impact of sunlight on the tourney goes away.

So for Nadal, a match that was being played at dusk suddenly became a mid afternoon match with indoor lighting meant to simulate mid-day. Moreover, the impact of his slower spin shots which wreak havoc in outdoor conditions with wind and the “Magnus” effect are negated since there is no wind to vary the spin of the ball.

There hasn’t been a more terrifying set of circumstances against a Spaniard as Nadal faced in the fifth set since the Spanish Armada wrecked on the shores of Ireland. After 4 sets, Nadal had more aces than Rosol and trailed in winners by only 9 shots. In the 5th set, Rosol hit 33% of his aces with 7 to Nadal’s 3 getting in an incredible 19 of 23 first serves. When he wasn’t serving 5th set aces, Rosol hit 20 winners to Nadal’s 5 doubling his margin of winners in the match in one set alone. And just like that, Wimbledon became any man’s tournament.

The Indoor / Outdoor scenario played itself out time after time as Federer was blessed with an indoor semi-final against Djokovic. At the 2011 US Open final Federer and Djokovic were about the same in winners and aces with the decisive figure being unforced errors where Federer hit 59 vs Djokovic’s 35. At the 2011 Australian Open, Djokovic hit 10 more winners and 10 less unforced errors than Federer. But in mid 2012, an older Federer playing without interference from the elements hit only 10 unforced errors to Djokovic’s 21 over 4 sets while hitting more winners and aces.

In the final, the first two sets against Murray were a close affair as Murray has split 16 matches vs Federer evenly. But the match again turned dramatically when the roof was closed. In the first two sets, Murray held a slight edge in aces with Federer having a slight edge in winners. But Murray had a lopsided advantage in unforced errors hitting only 9 to Federer’s 24. After the roof was closed the match turned dramatically as Federer hit 32 winners in the last 2 sets and only 14 unforced errors. Pete Sampras looked down from the tennis pantheon and thought to himself “how many slams would I have won with a rooftop?”

The issues with Wimbledon’s rooftop are well known. In 2009 when the rooftop first premiered, Andy Murray slammed it for the impact on the game. He claimed which was later confirmed by an International Tennis Federation scientist that the grass became more slippery as the closed roof and artificial environment caused humidity to condense on the grass. In Murray’s first service game where he was broken in the third set of the final in 2012, he slipped full to the ground 3 times on different points he lost.

Other players describe the air under rooftop as treacle, slowing the ball down during play. The shot spot system has shown that serves can slow down as much as 5 mph indoors. from when the roof is not closed. Professor Steve Haake, of Sheffield Hallam University’s department of sports engineering, who is also a consultant to the International Tennis Federation says ‘We have conducted blind tests on top tennis players, and they are so sensitive they can tell immediately there has been even the smallest changes to their rackets and strings.’

The New York Times also sites that for the first time, night time matches are being played at Wimbledon, upsetting what players are used to from a scheduling perspective.

And what of Wimbledon itself. This was the oldest men’s round of 16 in history with the average age of competitors 27.8 years old. At the 2010 Australian Open there was a 21 year old breakout talent, Marin Cilic, who made it to the men’s semifinal. At this year’s Wimbledon, 2.5 years later, the youngest person in the men’s round of 16 was again Marin Cilic. Wimbledon who has had breakout titlists under 22 such as John McEnroe, Jimmy Connnors, Bjorn Borg, Boris Becker, Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi has not had a 21 and under winner since Roger Federer in 2003. As John McEnroe says in an ESPN on Novak Djokovic, and is quoted in the blog, tennishasasteroidsproblem, “The level of play is mind-boggling,” says John McEnroe, commentating for NBC during a recent match. “I’m still trying to figure out how these guys do it.”

Surprising as in every other sport in the world, besides cycling, career longevity is declining. Tennis oldsters are hanging onto the top 10 like some sort of characters from “Interview With a Vampire”.

Meanwhile, the US has little new tennis talent. Donald Young continues his downward spiral. Ryan Harrison exited in the second round like last year. John Isner also exited early. No Americans under 24 moved up in the top 100 as a result of the tourney.

And tennis ratings are at there lowest point ever as the Federer / Nadal era has brought such decline in the sport that Wimbledon broadcasts are no longer available on network television. Feeding the tennis world the same matches over and over in finals over a 10 year span has left fans to say, “I’ll watch it when something is different” Tennis has entered the last tier of sports viewing and what happens when Federer and Nadal retire?