Rafael Nadal’s momentum from his Roland Garros victory and the relative success that lefties have at Wimbledon vs. other slams makes this year’s Wimbledon, Nadal’s for the taking.
In most years, a number 1 ranked, defending champ would be the overwhelming favorite. But Novak Djokovic is settling back into his pre-2011 routines rather than his 2011 invincibility. Last year Djokovic lost only 1 match from January through all of July. This year he has already lost 6 matches putting him on pace for an average year by his standards of 16-20 losses. Djokovic’s 2012 looks like his prior years where he is an October-March player winning the end of year Masters or Beijing, then January Australian, Dubai or Indian Wells or Miami as he has done multiple years but nothing from April to September. He has lost to Nadal 3 times in a row and did not play in a Wimbledon warmup (except an exhibition).
Though there is no historical precedent of players meeting in 4 consecutive Grand Slam finals, we think the direction of the rivalry is in Nadal’s favor. The Australian Open final where Djokovic had to labor almost 6 hours to win after handling Nadal in the 2 prior slam finals was a turning point in the rivalry. In most cases, when a player masters another player with 3 consecutive victories, the matches get easier e.g. Jimmy Connors vs. Ken Rosewall. On Djokovic’s best surface at his favorite slam, he barely beat Nadal for his third straight victory. Since then, it has been all Nadal.
We think this rivalry is like McEnroe vs. Lendl. Djokovic’s 2011 was analogous to McEnroe’s 1984 season where McEnroe dominated Lendl, but the remainder of their careers was dominated by Lendl. Djokovic has a relatively easy draw unless Eastbourne semifinalist, Ryan Harrison, grows a pair … of groundstrokes – forehand and backhand – to complement his superb serve and volleying talent. Otherwise, it’s Tomas Berdych in the quarters whose sole win in 10 matches vs. Djoker has been on grass and then Roger Federer in the semis.
Federer is playing in the weakest quarter yet concerns remain about his ability to go the distance.
Nadal is likely to return to the finals since he has made every Wimbledon final he has entered since he was 20. Big-serving but big-point bungling, Jo Tsonga, is a darkhorse who has beaten Nadal on Grass (Queens Club). If Nadal gets by Tsonga in the quarters, he faces Andy Murray who he has beaten 3 times at Wimbledon without a loss or one of the hard ballers from Murray’s quarter.
Though big serve and volley winners are as unusual at Wimbledon as dragons in “Game of Thrones”, we expect the most exciting play out of Murray’s quarter with Del Potro, Raonic, Roddick, Querrey, Kevin Anderson and Ivo Karlovic serving more aces than the rest of the draw combined.
We look forward to lots of sound and fury coming out of the banger’s quarter and then the usual finalists in Nadal, Djokovic or Federer with Nadal winning either of those matchups.
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